In a recent edition of HA Housing Insights, they spoke with Bruce Wan, Head of Research at MaxCap, to explore current market conditions, emerging trends and the key forces shaping Australia’s housing outlook.
What are your observations of the current market and emerging trends?
Amid all the disruptive economic events unfolding abroad, it is even more important for us to separate the noise from the signal and focus on the fundamental drivers that matter for the Australian housing market. In this context, we are actually seeing brighter prospects for the Australian housing market in 2025 and beyond.
Housing demand remains exceptionally strong. While population growth and immigration flows are likely to ease from record levels, we are still contending with a pace of housing demand that is running strong by historical standards and that is clearly outpacing housing supply. In turn, this persisting state of housing undersupply is supporting sustained growth in prices and rents.
The outlook for housing construction is improving. The big challenges for builders in 2022 – runaway cost escalations and high borrowing costs – are clearly subsiding in 2025. Building material cost inflation is much more muted. At the same time, the Reserve Bank is finally cutting official rates, improving developer sentiment and project feasibility. More rate cuts are being priced over the remainder of 2025.
Certainly, there are massive regional differences across the country. Housing markets in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane are showing considerably stronger price gains, on the back of their firmer local economies. Meanwhile, the housing market in Melbourne is clearly lagging this cycle, weighed down by the lagging economic rebound, additional state taxes and weaker investor sentiment.
With a looming federal election, the political landscape is steadily becoming more accommodating. Indeed, there is increasingly vocal voter pressure to address housing availability and affordability. Consequently, there is bipartisan support for lifting residential housing construction, both at the state and federal levels of government, with a focus on value-adding infrastructure and streamlining approvals.
What are the key challenges you are seeing in residential projects? What are the solutions?
After a difficult period for builders from 2022 to 2024, the biggest challenges for the housing construction sector – material costs and interest rates – are looking less daunting. In 2025, costs are stabilising, borrowing costs are edging lower, as developer profit margins slowly recover. That said, there are still many lingering challenges in terms of labour costs, skilled worker shortages and access to key contractors, but the broad outlook for housing construction is clearly improving.
While developers are keen and ready to go in 2025, the drawn-out planning process remains a key hurdle preventing a quicker supply response to Australia’s housing shortage. While federal and state governments have all made ambitious targets for housing delivery (1.2 million homes nationally by 2029 and 2.2 million homes in Victoria by 2051) and there are well-intentioned initiatives to reduce approval timeframes, there is still a lot of work ahead to reform the current planning and approval process.
Securing the funding to do this work is a critical factor for developers. From a project financing perspective, there is a big sustained structural shift towards non-bank lenders. Banks are still being mandated by the Australian regulator to assign the highest risk weightings for development and construction, particularly for non-conforming projects. In turn, borrowers are progressively shifting from bank to non-bank financing to access more timely and flexible funding for their projects.
Is there any appetite for investors to invest in affordable housing?
Left to pure market forces, most residential developers are often more inclined to develop luxury (rather than affordable) housing, due to better profit margins. Simply, affordable housing is harder to do, as it targets a lower price point and requires keener discipline on costs.
Certainly, there is an increasingly urgent call for more affordable housing, particularly as housing affordability approach their cyclical extremes, reflecting the combination of rising house prices, elevated mortgage interest rates and subdued real household income growth.
In areas where we have seen good progress on affordable housing development, these projects are often incentivised by additional factors, either with direct government funding, public subsidies or improved development metrics like floor space ratios or building height.
From an investor perspective, some institutions have dedicated pools of capital targeting ESG strategies, with affordable housing sitting squarely in their “S” or social component. In other words, affordable housing strategies are often able to tap additional pools of ESG capital from some of these global institutional investors.
Ultimately, developers and investors are motivated by expected returns. In this context, improving the terms of these funding arrangements, either with greater affordable housing subsidies or improved development parameters, can be the vital catalyst needed to drive greater development activity in the affordable housing sector.
Lower interest rates are definitely a boost to the outlook. Residential construction is one of the most rate-sensitive sectors in the Australian economy and rate cuts in early 2025 (and market expectations for more) will provide a handy uplift to activity. At the same, volatility and uncertainty in global share markets – amid an unfolding trade war – are encouraging more investors to keep their capital closer to home, especially when there is a clear, profitable opportunity to address the local housing crisis.